The midweek fixtures proved successful for Liverpool in the race for fourth place; victory over not only their Merseyside neighbours but also their challengers for fourth, followed by a defeat for Spurs last night.
The victory over Everton puts Brendan Rodgers‘ side four points clear of Roberto Martinez’s, while defeat for Tottenham to Man City last night leaves them three behind the Reds – although Liverpool’s vastly superior goal differences effectively makes the gap four points.
Victory for Man United leaves them six points behind.
While the most optimistic of Liverpool fans may claim their side can still challenge for the top three, it would be much more realistic to continue towards the goals set out before the season, which is to gain qualification for the Champions League.
According to statistician Constantinos Chappas (@cchappas) Liverpool now have a 65% overall chance of finishing in the top four.
Chappas’ model is based on data from each Premier League match so far, to provide a statistical probability of each team’s likely positional finish for this season.
“The model is based on match stats such as goals, shots, shots on target etc.” explains Chappas. “Based on these figures, the performance of each team in each match is assessed and used for future predictions through a statistical model which in turn results in probabilities.
“I then simulate a large number of times what may happen in the matches yet-to-be-played and produce probabilities for where teams might finish.
“Even though the model is not really designed for end-of-season predictions but rather for match-to-match predictions, it has been quite accurate for a few years now.”
The model calculates that Liverpool have a 3% of winning the title, added to 62% probability of finishing second to fourth.
Everton’s top four hopes are ranked at 21%, Tottenham’s 19% and Man United’s at 9%.
Liverpool are currently 14/1 with William Hill to win the Premier League, and 4/6 fourth favourites to finish in the top four.
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