It’s Merseyside derby time and Rory provides his analysis of the opposition from across Stanley Park.
Roberto Martinez is employing a 4-2-3-1 type system at Everton this season as his predecessor largely did. However, the new manager is encouraging a possession-based ethos in order to provide a greater level of control in matches.
Unsurprisingly though, there have been some teething problems with certain games filled with hollow passing, such as the recent 0-0 draw at Palace. As the season progresses, Martinez will be looking to ensure that there is a purpose behind the passing by injecting it with tempo and movement that were evidenced in their better performances so far, such as the first half against Newcastle.
Everton’s set up
The defence in the graphic below have played every minute of every game so its reasonable to assume we will see this again. In midfield, Ross Barkley is the player that has missed out recently. With Martinez going with McCarthy and Barry as the holding players, moving Osman into the advanced midfield position at the expense of Barkley. Out wide, the manager has linked Pienaar up with Baines on the left with Mirallas starting on the right and obviously Lukaku upfront.
Their general style has seen Martinez encouraging Pienaar and Mirallas to pick their moments to come inside off the flanks and encourage both full-backs to get forward to provide the width. It’s a simple strategy that by bringing them infield, the team have more options to keep it in central areas to encourage a more possession based game that Martinez is looking to instil yet still gets the best out Baines and Coleman given their attacking tendencies.
The pivot in midfield generally sees McCarthy use his energy to get forward more and do the chasing and closing down, with Barry covering the space a bit deeper and reading the danger – as shown in the average positions above, McCarthy (16) has had a higher position than Barry (18).
This season, McCarthy averages the most tackles per game for the team whilst Barry averages the most interceptions per game. With Barry sitting as the deeper of the two being the one to start attacks and being the outlet ball by backing up the play, he is the player that gets on the ball most for Everton and has averaged the fifth highest amount of passes per game this season in the league.
As for upfront, Lukaku plays as a lone striker but has had his better days with Barkley behind him. In recent games, Martinez has made a more conservative selection in Osman there who has failed to link up the midfield and attack resulting in Lukaku coming a bit deeper to try get involved with the play. The recent bluntness is not only down to this selection issue but a drop in Mirallas’ form recently. I think this is the key selection issue for Everton in the derby – will Martinez go conservative with the experience of Osman or will Barkley come back in and provide more drive in attack?
Change in Style
Last season Everton averaged 52.9% possession (9th highest) with a pass completion rate of 79.4% (11th highest) and averaged 369 short passes per game (11th highest). After 11 games this season, they have averaged 58.1% possession (4th) with a pass completion rate of 83.8% (6th) and average 453 short passes per game (6th) which is 23% more short passes than last season. It is well documented that Martinez has looked to change Everton’s style with the manager recently saying:
“If you want to have big results it has to be a big change. But I would never tell my players to launch the ball forward”.
However, it would be foolish to believe that Everton are married to a short passing game under Martinez irrespective of the improving possession stats and recent comments. After all, with a tall and powerful striker in Lukaku, playing clever balls over the top can help turn a team around or simply hit his chest and look to play from his lay-offs.
Two examples of this are the games against City away and Newcastle at home when the ball went from back to front. These were not pressure relieving aimless punts, rather the balls were played with relatively little pressure on the ball. Therefore, it would be unwise to expect Everton not to consider mixing it up with longer passes looking for Lukaku. That said, it is certainly something that Liverpool should be looking to force Everton into by pressing them in deeper areas especially with two debutants in Barry and McCarthy.
Fig 1. Lukaku goal at City started by a long pass
Fig 2. Long balls played by Everton at Villa
Possession based game
There will be certain aspects of Everton’s transition under Martinez that Liverpool fans will be able to relate to. In the last 2 games at least, it would appear that Everton are going through a phase of retaining possession without being able to apply a cutting edge to open teams up. By retaining possession in midfield and moving the play from side to side, it can draw players out of position and open space for the likes of Barkley & Mirallas that have the willingness to travel up the pitch with the ball and the ability to beat defenders. Mark Noble suffered earlier in the season when he fouled each of them when they were on runs and picked up yellow cards for each foul and got sent off.
Recently, both Liverpool & Everton played 2 of the weaker teams in the league and each had a staggering amount of possession – approx 70%. Below is a look at the main pass combinations in those games. With Everton, there was alot of football played amongst their defenders and their defensive midfielders which is alot of football being played in non-threatening areas. However, Liverpool’s main combinations involved getting Henderson & Johnson to link up down the right and also Gerrard & Lucas looking to get Coutinho on the ball.
Continuing the theme of passing trends here are a look at the most recent 2 games of each side – both played a top London club and both played a relegation threatened London club;
- LFC v Fulham & EFC v Palace: Liverpool played 26% more forward passes than Everton and had a better pass completion rate (87% v 81%)
- LFC v Arsenal & EFC v Spurs: Liverpool played 21% more forward passes than Everton and had a better pass completion rate (77% v 70%)
These comparisons are almost like looking at Liverpool early last season (more lateral passing) and the team this season (more vertical passing). As such, part of Everton’s play this season is almost like looking at the reds under Brendan Rodgers in the first part of last season. With Everton having 70% possession against a relegation threatened team (Palace) and drawing 0-0, its not an original story for a team and something reds can relate to from previous seasons.
Glen Johnson vs Leighton Baines
The infographic below shows that Everton predominantly play down the left side of the pitch (more than any other team in the league) whilst Liverpool are more focused down the right. As such, with Johnson and Baines operating on the same side of the pitch – the side that their respective teams favour – these 2 attacking international full backs could have a big say in their teams fortunes on Saturday.
Tactical battle
Liverpool recently reverted to a back 4 against Fulham and, from a personal point of view, I think this would work better against Everton than moving back to a wing-back system. The biggest weakness of the wing-back system is that it provides opportunities for the opposition to exploit the space out wide with the wing-back having little or no cover from wide midfield to help with 2-on-1 situations.
Considering the willingness of Baines & Coleman to get forward along with players like Mirallas & Pienaar, there would be plenty of space for Everton to target out wide. With a back four, and Everton heavily favouring the left, it would seem reasonable to go with a system that has Henderson stationed there like at Fulham. Without having that kind of cover, it would open season on Johnson down our right against one of better partnerships in the Premiership (even if it is stuttering this season) with Martinez recently saying;
“You get special partnerships in football, and Leighton and Stevie have developed that over the years. Look at the stats and, last season, they were probably the most successful partnership in the league. Leighton and Steven have as good a chemistry as you’re going to find in football”.
Here is a graphic used in my preview last season. It’s something for midfield to be wary of should we stick with the same system that was fielded against Fulham.
Forcing errors
Martinez is obviously encouraging a more possession based game and as recently seen, there has been an element of stagnation within their play. Its something that Liverpool could look to turn against Everton by applying pressure at the right times during the match to try and force a mistake. With a back four behind them and Lucas in midfield, Henderson can push up on Baines to try cut off that avenue with Coutinho coming in centrally to help the strikers press Everton’s deeper players when in possession.
With a derby day atmosphere and players conscious of trying to keep possession then mistakes can be made just like when Gerrard & Henderson pressed Richardson 2 weeks ago and won the ball back for the 4th goal against Fulham. Below is a recent example of Everton being forced into making an error due to a lack of options for the man on the ball.
Kevin Mirallas
Kevin Mirallas scored 34 goals in 52 games for Olympiacos before Everton bought him in 2012. Recently Martinez hailed his importance to the team:
“He’s a complete player in terms of an attacking outlet. He gives you that threat in transition, an out-ball. His dribbling ability in one versus one positions is brilliant and he’s had a great start to the season. I think he’s in the best moment of his career and he’s taken on a lot of responsibility which has been a real positive.”
However, Mirallas has been a bit more candid with his comments and perhaps feels a greater burden to make things happen when he doesn’t have Barkley alongside him in an attacking role with Barkley & Mirallas being Everton’s best ball carriers (1st & 3rd most dribbles for the team this season).
“I have become an important part of the team and, in the last two games, we have had bad results because I played less well. This had on impact on the whole team. I have to stop this lack of consistency, even if opponents are now marking me more. The whole team plays through me so that I can make the difference and provide good passes to Romelu”.
Mirallas is a very direct runner when taking up possession on the flank and is the player that has created the most chances this season for Everton (like all stats, it can be misleading, its simply the player that plays a pass to a team-mate that then shoots). However, he has been responsible for 4 assists so far this season which is joint best in the league.
It would be interesting to know what Martinez seeks from him from a defensive perspective. When he played on the left against Chelsea, Ivanovic had an influential game getting off 9 crosses in that game whilst when he played on the right against Spurs, Vertonghen was a great outlet for Spurs going forward and nearly won a penalty. Perhaps Martinez encourages him to hold a higher position when the team defend but it creates a gap ahead of the full back.
Conclusion
Everton have only lost 1 game so far this season which was away to Man City. At home they have beaten Chelsea & drawn with Spurs and kept a clean sheet in both games. Broadly speaking they are a team that is evolving into a fluid, possession-based side though recenlty they have lacked incision with goals hard to come by with a narrow 4-2-3-1 formation which relies on the flying full-backs to create width.
They have looked sharpest this season with Barkley playing in the attacking role behind Lukaku and its something that Martinez is sure to give serious consideration to. Barkley is a player that constantly seeks out possession and could provide some relief for Mirallas who seems to be feeling an increasing amount of pressure recently to be the creator within the team.
For Liverpool, I would like to see a back four so that there is some cover on the flanks for the full-backs (more so from Henderson on that side of the pitch) but also it gives the team a better platform to press Everton and close off their passing angles when they look to build attacks by getting Henderson to sit on Baines and let Lucas cover the space behind Gerrard at times when he pushes on.
With Everton dropping Barry deep to allow the full-backs go high, and the wide midfielders to go higher, and with Martinez encouraging them to be braver on the ball, then perhaps Liverpool can turn their possession based game against them by applying pressure at the right times, especially with it being the first derby for the spine of their team (McCarthy, Barry, Barkley and Lukaku).
According to William Hill , the lowest priced score is the 1-1 draw which is priced at 6/1 with the next lowest being 1-0 Liverpool at 15/2 and then Everton priced at 17/2 to win 1-0 . It would seem that the bookies are predicting a tight low-scoring affair, would you agree?
References: squawka.com, whoscored.com, fourfourtwo.com
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